As we come upon the 5th year anniversary of the Agile Manifesto, there are a number in our community looking at what progress we have made, where we are today, and the direction we are headed. In essense, we are asking ourselves, "Have we crossed the chasm?" - according to the well known book Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore.

Diana Larsen published a well-written article on Agile Alliance Survey: Are We There Yet? In this article, she surfaces some evidence that we have made some great progress, and by some people's opionion have Crossed the Chasm.

In another survey, VersionOne has recently published their results from their "The State of Agile Development" Survey with some results that also parallel those discussed by Diana Larsen.

Has Agile Crossed the Chasm?

Below is a picture from the Geoffrey Moore book in describing the chasm as the transition from early adopters to the early majority.

"[The chasm] is by far the most formidable and unforgiving transition in the Technology Adoption Life Cycle, and it is all the more dangerous because it typically goes unrecognized.

What the early adopter is buying is some kind of change agent. [They] expect to get a jump on the competition. They expect a radical discontinuity between the old ways and the new, and they are prepared to champion this cause against entrenched resistance.

By contrast, the early majority want to buy a productivity improvement for existing operations. They are looking to minimize the discontinuity with the old ways. They want evolution, not revolution. They want technology to enhance, not overthrow, the established ways of doing business."

By this definition, I do not see Agile across the chasm yet. I see agile primarily used today as a change agent. I see it as a radical discontinuity between the old and new ways. And I know that a champion is necessary to fight the cause against entrenched resistance.

I believe we are either in the chasm or just entering it. We are in the process of moving from the visionaries to the pragmatists. Through the evidence presented in these reports (and other agile-related news), the early adopters are beginning to show the promise and alert the attention of the mainstream. 

However, the evolutionary, continuous, safe, proven approach required by the mainstream is not yet available. However, as mentioned in the exerpt from the book, the chasm is a dangerous place. It represents a major transition that requires a change in strategy and market focus to cross. Geoffrey's dedicates his follow-up book, In the Tornado, to understanding and managing the transition through the chasm created by paradigm shifts like Agile.

Today, each Agile process marches alone into, or within, the chasm. Extreme Programming, Scrum, DSDM, FDD, Crystal, AgileUP/OpenUP/EssentialUP, APM are each marching down separate paths through the chasm. Some in the industry are intermixing between the disciplines to leverage multiple strongholds to cross the chasm. Others are extending existing strongholds to push forward.

While Agile community has made some strong forward movement (e.g. formation of the Agile Manifesto), I believe more must be done (I know many of us are working on it) to increase the unity, clarity, integrity and respectability of the disciplines to cross the chasm.

Where in the Life Cycle do you think Agile is?